Three games ago it looked like the defending champion Denver Nuggets were in trouble. The Nuggets have flipped that script against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nuggets are now on the verge of making it back to the Western Conference finals.
Denver was down 0-2 after a pair of losses at home, including a total blowout in Game 2. Three wins later, none that even went down to the wire, and the Nuggets are now again favored to make it to the NBA Finals. Nikola Jokić went nuclear in Tuesday’s Game 5 win, but most of the Nuggets’ supporting cast has played better as well.
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Denver can clinch the series with a win at Minnesota on Thursday. Here’s a look at the storylines, odds and staff picks for Thursday’s Game 6 in Minneapolis.
All odds fromBetMGM.Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 2 Denver Nuggets at No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves
How to watch: 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Series odds: Nuggets -500, Timberwolves +375
Nuggets lead series 3-2
It sure looks like the Nuggets have solved the Minnesota puzzle that confounded them in the first two games. Aaron Gordon’s increased ballhandling duties have been a twist few would have seen coming as the type of move to shift this series, but it seems to have helped.
Gordon has been bringing the ball up, taking one responsibility off of Jamal Murray, who has been nursing an injury. Murray is likely closer to full health now than he was in the first two games, where he shot a combined 9-f0r-32 from the field in Denver’s two losses at home this series, but easing his workload has also helped. Murray has been more efficient in the past three games, all Denver wins. He is 26-for-52 in the past three games. He’s not dominating games, but he is at least not hurting the Nuggets with awful shooting nights anymore.
Meanwhile, Gordon has been efficient all series, shooting 66 percent from the field. Gordon was 11-for-12 in Game 4 with 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists. He had 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in Tuesday’s Game 5 win.
Denver’s turnaround this series has been aided by Murray playing better and Gordon playing at a high level, but, of course, Nikola Jokić is still the best player in the league. Jokić played what felt like as close to a perfect basketball game as you’ll realistically see in a playoff game in Game 5. He had 40 points on 15-for-22 shooting with 13 assists, seven rebounds and somehow no turnovers despite being the focal point of the offense whenever he was on the floor. Minnesota may not have an answer for Jokić if he keeps playing at that level.
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Michael Porter Jr. was massive last round against the Los Angeles Lakers (22.8 points per game) but has been held to single-digit scoring three times this series, including in Game 5. Christian Braun stepped up with a 28-minute outing full of a variety of stats and big plays. He had 10 points, five rebounds, two assists, a steal and two blocks to add up to a plus-11 for Denver when he was on the floor. Jokić is great, but Denver has so many other good players that they don’t need Porter Jr. to play well or Murray to go off.
A week ago, Minnesota appeared to be in full control of this series. Now the Timberwolves are searching for answers. Can Rudy Gobert defend Jokić at all? Can Anthony Edwards get going again after being held under 20 points in two of the last three games?
Mike Conley missed Game 5 with an Achilles injury. The Timberwolves’ point guard wasn’t a massive scoring factor in the first four games, but he managed 31 assists against seven turnovers. Having Conley on the court is one way to help get Edwards going.
Minnesota is favored in Game 6, but only by a small margin, and the Nuggets are clear favorites to win the series. What a turnaround from seven days ago, when the Nuggets were +400 to win the series.
Expert picks for Nuggets at Timberwolves
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(Photo of Nikola Jokić: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Dan Santaromita is a senior editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Dan previously wrote for NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He is a University of Missouri graduate who resides in Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto
